Week 3

A little Sunday morning special.  Let’s get to it.

First, it’s no secret that scoring in the NFL has been down.  And specifically passing. Rushing was the choice of coaches across the NFL in the first two weeks, but we saw a little bit of a bounce back in Week 3 with more Passing. Passing = Fantasy Points. So let’s hope this continues.

And speaking of something that Billy would certainly hopes continues, his absolute dominance at the Kicker position. I mean you know what Billy says, the key to life long happiness is ensuring you have the #1 Kicker in the NFL.

Since it’s Rivalry Week and a Sunday Morning special, I thought I would take a look at this week’s matchups and do a little breakdown:

Kayak Pirates vs. the icon

Well apparently Overbay doesn’t have the ability to check his lineup so that could be problematic, but Jeff is full speed ahead in trying to get to 4-0.

And statistically Overbay has owned this rivalry week matchup.  Overall he is 16-10 and is currently on a 4 game winning streak averaging 99 points. Oddly prior to that Jeff was on a 4 game winning streak in the series.

The headline for me (and you will read more about this player in a bit) is that breakout start Jauan Jennings is not in the Week 4 lineup. The Kayak Pirates apparently think that he was a 1 week wonder. Because Jakobi Meyers is currently slated to be a starting WR. Two googly eye emojis at that decision.

George Kittle is back this week which should be a huge boost to this lineup.  But the biggest questions here for the rest of the season are going to be: Can Derek Carr be the answer at QB and what exactly will Josh Jacobs bring?

On the other side you have a lineup anchored by the breakout of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Justin Jefferson, two dynamic players. Kamara has been a revelation (and a steal at his ADP) but he is currently banged up and questionable to play. I think the biggest headline for Overbay are focused on the Miami Dolphins Offense hurting the ceiling of Achane and the absolute disappearance of Mark Andrews. I mean he isn’t even playing half the game. Not sure he is startable right now.  Heck I am not even sure he is rosterable.

Despite that I am going to agree with Yahoo that Overbay is going to come out with the victory here.

The Institute vs. black is for sunday

One of the tenser rivalry week matchups in the league, it’s obvious there is no love lost between these two franchises. And get this shocking stat:

The Institute has won EIGHT CONSECUTIVE RIVALRY WEEK MATCHUPS. I mean Donald Trump was President the last time Brent beat VZ in a rivalry week matchup (spoiler alert).

And on the surface, this matchup isn’t exactly glorious. The biggest name on the slate is going to be Lamar Jackson tonight vs. the Bills. 2 of his 3 games have been 25+ points and in a matchup you expect the teams to go back and forth against, he is probably slated for a big game. But after that I mean where will the points come from.  Taylor is going against a difficult and aggressive Steelers defense. Nico Collins is banged up and while the Jaguars stink you need to hope that CJ Stroud is throwing for multiple touchdowns starting Diggs as well (Aaron can confirm, but he has only done this once so far this season in week 1). I will say that the Minnesota defense has looked great and that could be a great addition for the season.

But this week isn’t about The Institute. It’s about black is for sunday. It’s about the hype train. Joe Burrow bounced back and is looking to continue it against a resurgent Panthers Offense. DK Metcalf has been a top 10 WR so far. And Robinson and St. Brown are looking for statement games. But I am going to say that the difference could be a receiving touchdown from Mike Gesicki because I mean it’s completely random. The streak stops here today. Let’s make black is for sunday great again.

Dirty Mike & The Boys vs. KRABS

To get straight to the point, these two teams are a mess. I mean Brent Cozart has apparently said “Bye Felicia” to Anthony Richardson and it appears Jayden Daniels is in charge now after his Monday Night masterpiece.

But where do we go after that? Joe Mixon started the year great, but is still hurt and while he is currently slated in the starting lineup, I am not exactly sure he will play today against the Jaguars. And after that yuck. Tyreek Hill is getting destroyed by the dysfunction of the Dolphins offense, Zay Flowers and Drake London (while they have promise) are not exactly in the best spots. And Travis Etienne has scored two touchdowns on the season but somehow has not managed to score more than 11 Fantasy Points in a week. But hey Brocktober is right around the corner!

The one thing that Cozart has going to him is that he is playing a team that apparently has only two players. That is managed by Kris. And well those two players have been the two best players in Fantasy Football over the first three weeks.  By a fairly wide margin. But the other 7 players.  Woof. Deebo Samuel is back so that should help, but Josh Allen and Barkley can’t save him every week.  But they are probably going to do this week. This rivalry matchup has been even since Brent joined the league (5-5) but KRABS is going to pull ahead after this weeks matchup. Tony Pollard is the difference on Monday night.

showmedamoney vs. This is the Way

I bet many people wouldn’t know this, but Billy has dominated this matchup vs. Aaron. He is 8-2 against Aaron in Rivalry Week matchups. I mean dominance at the kicker position is probably a huge part of that success, but Aubrey already played this week and while he did good, he didn’t score 20+ points.  So Billy is going to have to make up those points somewhere else. The best place he can do that is Kyren Williams who has been a revelation since he slid in the draft. He has scored double digit points every week and broke out for 28 last week. But after Kyren things are ugly and Billy is hoping that he can get big weeks out of James Conner and Amari Cooper if he is going to have a chance.

On the other side Aaron is looking to bounce back after a hiccup in Week 3. But with the Bengals offense and Chase back to his normal ways, he has to be feeling good about his spot. He appears to be riding full time with Matthew Berry’s “Ride or Die” at QB and the steady duo of Robinson and Cook at RB have really helped propel him to his 2-1 record so far. But let’s be honest, the engine of this lineup is Harrison Butker. We all know how difficult this will be for Billy to compete against one of his Hall of Famers. I think Billy keeps it close but Brandon Aiyuk breaks out in Week 4 and is the difference for Aaron.

The Commish vs. Jerry’s Belt Buckle

Another one sided rivalry week matchup. The Commish is 13-3 overall in Rivalry Week matchups vs. Umphlett since the rivalry started in 2016. And wildly two of my losses were very close (lost in Week 4 of last year by 4 points and in Week 12 of 2018 by 2 points). In case you are wondering, Umphlett smashed me in the third loss by 50 points in Week 4 of 2021.

Interesting thought. Where the heck does Yahoo come up with these projections.  Mahomes is currently projected for 22 Fantasy Points. He has only scored 22+ Fantasy Points once in his last 12 matchups. What happened to him? I mean he is clearly still the architect of one of the best teams in the NFL, but he hasn’t thrown for more than 2 touchdowns in a game since October 22nd last year. And he only did it twice all of last regular season. Last year his wide receivers let him down, this year he seems to have more help.  It’s certainly been fascinating to watch.

On the other side Breece Hall has been a top 10 RB, but he hasn’t had the big game yet (although he has had double digit points every week). He destroyed the Broncos last year.  Can he do it again in Week 4? But the big question mark for me is Sam LaPorta. I invested a ton of draft capital in him and it’s time for it to pay off. Tight End has been a wasteland all year, but LaPorta is young and talented. This is the week.

I don’t see Umphlett’s 2021 result happening again. I already have 26 points in the bag from CeeDee and Malik and am looking to pile on more points today and tomorrow. Gibbs on Monday night will be an important player for Umphlett, he just needs to hope it isn’t over by then. I will get points from multiple players, but another big day from Brock Purdy and an inspired performance from the KC Chiefs defense leads me to victory.

Before we get to this week’s awards, check out this week’s episode of Gridiron Heights. 

Episode 4:

Manager of the Weak

Two in a row. 43 points. Yuck.

Move of the Week

Lots of interesting moves in Week 3, but one of the best was Brent Woodcox picking up the Green Bay Defense against headscratching turnover prone Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans. The Green Bay defense went on to score 21 points in Brent’s first victory of the season!

MVP

Jauan Jennings, Brock Purdy, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott

Are we sure that wasn’t Jerry Rice out there in a Jauan Jennings jersey? It’s not often that your waiver wire pickup immediately plays like a hall of famer, but that is exactly what happened with Jeff picking up Jennings. He had 35 Fantasy Points and was only 1 point behind Josh Allen for the #1 total scorer of the week. I mean are we really sure it wasn’t Jerry Rice?

Manager Of The Week

Well the Kayak Pirates may have taken forever in making their draft picks, but something seems to be working because they are currently 3-0. I mean heck, he picked up some guy named Strange who I literally have never heard of and that guy scored a touchdown!  But sources tell me that Daniel’s touch of gold may be running out. According to reports, Daniel apparently was a strong supporter of starting “Jaylen Waddle” in Week 3 and well, that would have been catastrophic. Apparently, he is winning the argument to bench Jennings. Oh Boy.

Congrats to Jeff for winning the Week 4 Manager of the Week!

P.S. Fun Fact.  Thought this was wild.

Until Week 4…

-          The Commish