Week 16

After 16 weeks of competition here we are Fantasy Bowl 2022. We are flirting with danger ladies and gentlemen and Billy is our last hope. He is like Obi Wan. Let’s just hope he is the strong awesome version and not the weak feeble version from the Disney+ series.

#1 showmedamoney vs. #3 The Institute

These two teams have never faced each other in the playoffs. Billy has been a top 4 team for the entire year and has been the #1 team for the majority of it. VZ has somehow turned it on over the past few weeks after his illicit trade with KRABS and finds himself riding the coattails of a resurgent George Kittle and a difference making CeeDee Lamb. In an odd way he may have upgraded after the Kyler Murray injury (he certainly spent enough money on Jared Goff). There will be some kind of bitterness if VZ wins with Jared Goff as his QB after I went out on a limb and started him in Week 3 only to have him sling the ball up and down the field for Jamal Williams to get a rushing touchdown. Bitter.

This is Billy’s 6th Playoffs appearance and first since 2020. Billy is 4-4 overall in the Playoffs and 1-2 in the Finals. This is Billy’s first trip to the finals since 2019.

This is VZ’s 9th appearance in the Playoffs and first since 2020. His record is 8-5 in the Playoffs and 3-2 in the Finals. This is VZ’s first appearance in the finals since 2018.

One thing that will be very interesting is the injury report. There are multiple players listed as questionable and while there is no player that is under significant risk of sitting, there are a few situations that bear monitoring.

Let’s breakdown the matchups.

QB: This is really not worth spending much time on. Josh Allen has been a face of the NFL for the past three seasons and is a Fantasy Superstar. Jared Goff has been an afterthought but somehow has become somewhat relevant this season in Detroit. Goff may have been good enough to get VZ here, but he certainly isn’t better than Josh Allen.

Edge: showmedamoney!

WR: This has been the strength of The Institute all year and CeeDee Lamb has been an MVP. Lamb was the player I was targeting with my first pick for the majority of draft prep until I came to the conclusion there was no way that VZ the Cowboys homer wasn’t going to draft him. And as he has quickly ascended into an elite Fantasy player it has basically sucked to watch it happen on VZ’s roster. Davante Adams has been another difference maker, but has struggled the last three weeks. With the benching of Derek Carr, how will that affect his prospects? And with Hopkins having little to no impact since Murray’s injury the same question there. Billy on the other hand hasn’t really staked a claim to an all time roster of WRs, but boy have they come up big all year with AJ Brown, Amari Cooper, and Christian Watson. This trio has been great all year and seems to have blowup games at the right time. But in Week 17 all three find themselves questionable on the injury report and losing any one of them will be a huge blow to Billy’s chances.

Edge: There are multiple question marks in this matchup, but I have to give the edge to the side with the bigger names – The Institute.

RB: The running back position is likely to make the difference in this matchup. You have Austin Ekeler on one side and Christian McCaffery on the other both dual thread rushing and receiving players that are the focus of their offenses. Post Week 3, Austin Ekeler has scored double digits in 8 of his 10 games. McCaffery on the other hand has managed to stay healthy all year and has scored double digits in 12 of his 15 games. These two players are money in the bank, but we have to keep an eye on Austin Ekeler after popping up on the injury report.

The more interesting side of this story is the enigma of Miles Sanders and Devin Singletary. After being an after thought in the Bills offense and the rise of James Cook, Devin Singletary had his best game of the year in Week 16 with 17 fantasy points. And he has two double digit outings in his last 4 games. As the weather has gotten colder, he has become a bigger part of his offense. And then you have Miles Sanders, who seems to either score over 25 points or under 5 points. There is no in between. After scoring 27 points in 2 of his three matchups between weeks 12-14, he has had two consecutive games under 5 points. Sanders has had a massive bounce back campaign, but it really just comes down to where he sits in the game plan. If he is involved, it is going to be hard to beat VZ. If he isn’t then VZ will have a massive hole in his lineup.

Edge: Push. I really don’t know what to say here and with Ekeler potentially injured it is just hard to say what will happen here. Even if everyone is healthy I still have no clue what version of Miles Sanders will show up, but I am willing to bet that the difference in this matchup will be made in the running game.

TE: The reign of George Kittle and the number 2 continues with him scoring a season high 24 points in week 16. Kittle now has scored 20+ points in back to back weeks with Brock Purdy at QB. Can he make it three straight? On the other side Billy seems to have a on/off relationship with Cole Kmet having started and benched him multiple times all year. And it looks like Kmet is getting the call once again in Week 17. Kmet had his season high in Week 10 vs. the Lions and is playing these same Lions in Week 17. Can he repeat the magic to try and hold off what seems like an unstoppable George Kittle?

Edge: VZ, but keep your eyes on the status of Deebo Samuel. Kittle’s resurgence is timed with the injury to Deebo Samuel and if Deebo plays he may be the most important person in the Fantasy Bowl not to actually compete in it.

Prediction:

Billy. You can do this buddy. Josh Allen is unlike any other player in the NFL. Somehow Amari Cooper is good for you. AJ Brown is awesome. And Austin Ekeler is your peanut butter.

I will say one interesting trend to watch is the depth of the points. Over the past 5 weeks VZ averages 69% of his points from his top three scorers for the week while Billy only averages 61% from his top 3 scorers. VZ keeps hitting on some big weeks to carry off nights, where as Billy has the high upside weeks but is able to claw out 7, 8, 9 point outings vs. 0, 2, 3, 4 point outings from his other players. In a close matchup this could make a big big deal.

Billy 103 – VZ 96

Unfortunately, Bleacher Report didn’t publish an episode of Gridiron Heights this week. Sigh.

Manager of the Weak

You failed us Overbay. You failed all of us.

Move of the Week

Billy picked up Dawson Knox on Christmas Eve and started him Christmas day. He scored 9 Fantasy Points and had a touchdown so he rewarded Billy’s faith and in the process won the Move of the Week!

MVP

I can’t remember the last team other than Billy to roster Austin Ekeler. Billy and Austin Ekeler are like Peanut Butter and Jelly. They just go together. And Ekeler scored 19 fantasy points in Week 16 securing a convincing victory for Billy in the semi finals. After a slow start, Ekeler is now the overall 3rd RB with 219 fantasy points and has 11 rushing touchdowns and 5 receiving touchdowns with over 1400 total yards. He is a rock in Billy’s lineup and a big reason why Billy find himself back in the finals.

Manager of the Week

Billy is 1 win away from his second Championship. He has been close before, but can he close it out? He is going to end up relying heavily on the Buffalo Bills one way or another on Monday night so we are certainly looking at a classic. Billy won Manager of the Week in Week 16, can he do it again in Week 17?!?!?

Until Week 17…

-The Commish