Week 15
- James Wilson
- Dec 23, 2023
- 8 min read
And then there were four. Congrats to VZ, KRABS, Jeff, and Billy for qualifying for the 2023 Fantasy Playoffs. With Jeff making the playoffs he takes sole possession for most Playoff appearances in league history with his 13th appearance.
Jeff – 13
Jimmy – 12
Overbay -12
VZ – 10
Umphlett – 8
KRABS – 8
Billy – 7
Brent W – 6
Aaron – 3
Brent C – 1
As I was reviewing the standings I was curious noticing that two of the top 4 teams had a negative points differential on the regular season and found that to be extremely odd. So I put on my researcher hat to go back into the annuals of the league to understand how rare it actually is.
Our league has now competed for 23 seasons which means that there were 92 teams that have qualified for the playoffs in league history. 85% of those teams that qualified for the Playoffs had a positive point differential (78). Which means there have been 14 teams in league history that have qualified for the Playoffs with a negative point differential (and two of them qualified this year). Even more interesting, 5 of the 14 have been in the last 3 seasons. Let’s take a deeper look.
There were three teams that had more than a -10 point differential: Billy in 2023 (-9) 8-7, Turner in 2006 (-7) 9-5, and KRABS in 2004 (-6) 7-5-2.
2011 Overbay (-11) 8-6: Ironically, this team actually won the 2011 Championship. This team was anchored by Cam Newton (who scored 35 points in the Fantasy Championship). After losing to Billy twice in the regular season (where Billy averaged 138 points scored) Overbay avenged the losses with a 119 – 111 Championship victory over Billy.
2007 Jeff (-13) 7-6-1: At the time Jeff was actually branded “The T.O.’s Time Outs” which I am not sure if that was a homage to Terrell Owens, Chicken, or Chris Webber. In quite hilarious fashion, Jeff’s starting lineup for his first round playoff loss to eventual champion Billy included such amazing stalwarts as Ernest Graham, David Garrard, LenDale White, and of course: Terrell Owens.
2021 Aaron (-15) 9-6: In the inaugural season of “This is the Way” not only did Aaron discover the ways of the Mandalorian, he also won the Fantasy Bowl. This will forever be known as the “JaMarr Chase” game where Chase scored 44 Fantasy Points by catching 11 passes for 266 Yards and 3 Touchdowns. The Chiefs apparently refused to let Tee Higgins beat them as they quadroupled teamed Tee leaving JaMarr wide open all day. Sigh.
2012 Jimmy (-23) 9-5: We are starting to pickup an odd trend here where people with Negative Point differentials for the season end up winning the Championship. Fueled by the will to win of Matt Ryan and Roddy White, the consistency of Alfred Morris, and the explosiveness of Jamaal Charles The Gold Standard would not be denied.
2022 Brent (-27) 7-8: Just last year Brent was able to sneak into the Playoffs despite a losing record and a negative point differential. He actually finished the regular season with a 4 game losing streak and ended up losing in the Semifinals. Mahomes did everything he could, but the injury to Cooper Kupp ended up being a death knell to this team. I would also look like to point out that he had Jeff Wilson Jr on his team. And he even started him.
2002 Turner (-33) 7-6-1: The Baudelaire Orphans. Talk about a blast from the past. I have no idea what that team name meant, but its amazing that he had Brett Favre, Tony Gonzalez, Tiki Barber, and DONALD DRIVER on his team.
2013 Brandon (-39) 8-6: This was actually the last time Brandon qualified for the Playoffs and ended up losing to Jeff in the Championship. Brandon actually started Zac Stacy (who remembers that guy). Apparently he is in jail now.
2021 Jimmy (-60) 8-7: Shockingly the 2021 Fantasy Bowl was a matchup of two teams that had a negative point differential for the season, the first time in league history. Man Jonathan Taylor was good in 2021.
2009 Overbay (-69) 8-6: This squad lost by 4 points in the Semifinals to KRABS when Aaron Rodgers scored 40 points for KRABS and Tom Brady scored 7 for Overbay. Fun fact: Overbay started Reggie Bush in this matchup. Second Fun Fact: KRABS lost the next week to me for the first manager in league history to win 3 Fantasy Championships.
2023 KRABS (-79) 9-6: This is the team that started my research. I thought for sure that KRABS had to have the lowest point differential in league history to have qualified for the Playoffs, but well he doesn’t. It’s the second lowest in league history. Which is sort of amazing. What is even more amazing is that KRABS doesn’t have a single dominating player that has been on his roster all year. Jefferson hasn’t done anything since Week 4. And somehow he has 9 victories.
2005 Overbay (-159) 7-7: Overbay made the Playoffs in 2005 with a mind numbing -159 point differential. In 2005 there were actually 5 teams that had losing records and another two with even records. There were two 11-3 teams (Jimmy and Brandon) and both of them faced off in the Championship. Brandon ended up crushing me based on massive performances from Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson. These days seem so gone, the idea of dominant teams based on anchor players you could count on every week. The NFL now is a series of random performances where NFL teams forget how to play football on random times. But in 2005, this season was an anomaly of all anomalies and I think it will be hard to ever repeat a performance like this again.
P.S. Ironically, this was the Steve McNair game where for some odd reason Overbay didn’t start Steve McNair and if he had I would have lost and Overbay would have lost to Brandon in the final. I don’t remember what the issue was, does anyone remember? He somehow ended up starting Eli Manning, but I feel like there was some controversy.
OK enough reminiscing the past. Let’s talk about the present:
Despite scoring the 5th most points in the league, VZ has been in first place in the league standings for most of the year. He brings a battered and beaten lineup in the semifinals on the heels of a two game losing streak. Mahomes finished sixth in QB fantasy points after finishing 1st in 2022 and 4th in 2021. To put that in perspective Mahomes scored 276 points in 2023. He scored 462 in 2022. The big headline for VZ is the return of Isiah Pacheco and Jonathan Taylor. Pacheco has missed two games, but prior to that had two straight 18+ point games. Taylor has missed 3 games and prior to his injury was averaging 17 carries over the past 5 games. He was coming off his highest scoring point total of the year in Week 12 with 91 yards and two touchdowns and will be looking to return to that level of production in Week 16. Note that Zach Moss is out and injured so there is zero competition for carries. Obviously VZ will be playing 8 on 9 since he started Taysom Hill (why) but he has to hope that the Mike Evans and Davante Adams Russian Roulette game works out for him.
On the other side Billy is riding major momentum with a current 4 game win streak. Even though he is burning massive amounts of points every week with a top 3 QB on his bench, he seems to find a way to win. Whether it is Amari Cooper, Cooper Kupp, Jakobi Myers Michael Pittman, or some other highly inconsistent player, they always seem to produce when it is needed the most. Cooper Kupp has turned it on at the perfect time for Billy (although he had a dud on Thursday night which isn’t great). But all eyes are on Derrick Henry. After an embarrassing 0 point total where he had 16 carries for 9 yards against the Houston Texans (who he has historically owned) you have to think he is highly motivated to have a huge bounce back game at home vs. Seattle. Josh Allen also has to be licking his chops to play against a Chargers team that essentially quit against the Raiders (but could have new life after Staley was fired).
These types of matchups usually seem to be won by which random player makes a big play. But Billy has relied on the success of Josh Allen for the past few seasons and you would be lying if you didn’t think that last year’s Championship isn’t motivation for Josh Allen and Billy. Billy gets his sweet revenge and moves on to the Championship on the legs of Derrick Henry and Josh Allen.
Commish Prediction: showmedamoney! 95 The Institute 84
The irony in this matchup is just too much for me. After these two teams made their post draft trade which allowed Jeff to draft Tyreek Hill and KRABS to draft Nick Chubb (when they both passed on chances to draft McCaffery), they now find themselves playing for the 2nd consecutive week. This matchup just reminds me that I think Fantasy Football has jumped the shark. More on this below, but KRABS just qualified for the Playoffs after starting Drew Lock. Repeat after me, he just started Drew Lock. And he didn’t just beat any manager, he beat the #1 scoring team in the league. So KRABS has qualified for the Playoffs finishing 2nd place despite scoring the 6th most points in the league and the 2nd highest negative point differential in league history. Hmm. At least it doesn’t appear that he will start Drew Lock this week, but I am going to cut to the chase, it seems highly unlikely that he is going to beat Jeff and Jacob for a second consecutive week. There is only so much voodoo magic to go around. Oh and Alvin Kamara only had 2 points on Thursday night so he is already in a -9 Yahoo Prediction hole. KRABS has to be hoping for a massive performance from Nick Mullens against the struggling Detroit defense because he needs Jefferson and Hockenson to both have multiple touchdowns. If the Vikings fall flat, you can start the bus, the magic carpet ride will be over.
On the other side, you have a franchise that has rode the explosive offense of the Dolphins all year. But this team has been fighting some pretty serious injuries with Keenan Allen being out for multiple games now, Josh Jacobs missing a game last week, and Tyreek Hill missing week 15. It looks like Jacobs is for sure back and while I expect Hill to be back, he is questionable on the injury report. The Dolphins play the Cowboys this week and they are reeling after getting blown up by the Bills last week. The Cowboys are a different team on the road and it is possible that Waddle and Hill have a field day with a Diggs-less secondary. But the focus of this team is Gibbs, who is a modern day Chris Johnson with the ability to score on any play at any time. The Mighty Kayak Pirates have not forgotten the 2020 Fantasy Bowl when they lost to KRABS 108-83 and you can rest assured they won’t need any extra motivation.
Commish Prediction: Kayak Pirates 117 – KRABS 68
Before we get to the awards let’s check this week’s episode of Gridiron Heights (A PROFESSIONAL LEAGUE BATTLE)
P.S. Die Hard is a Christmas Movie
Manager of the Weak
Overbay has a strong tradition of Playoffs appearances and he came oh so close in 2023 missing only by 10 points. It was a roller coaster year for the icon, but at the of the day Hurts and Ekeler let him down. It will be a long offseason of questions and what ifs.
Move of the Week
There was much gnashing of teeth this week due to the supposed lineup that Brent Cozart was going to start in Week 15. While I think it would have been more productive for certain managers to focus more on the Seattle Seahawks injury report in the future, clearly The Generalissimo isn’t going to allow shenanigans to persist in the best Fantasy Football league on the planet. But, I am not going to lie. I got some seriously funny texts.
MVP
Christian McCaffery, James Cook, Jordan Addison, Drew Lock
Drew Lock – 12 Fantasy Points, 208 Passing Yards, 1 Passing Touchdown
Sigh.
Manager Of The Week
Put some respect on Billy’s name. All he does is qualify for the Playoffs. He has now qualified two consecutive years and has the 7th most playoffs appearances despite being in the league 6 less seasons. After the crushing events of last years unprecedented Fantasy Bowl Billy is looking to get revenge and right now he is on a massive roll. Just imagine if he could start TWO QBs!
Until Week 16…
- The Commish
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