Week 15
- James Wilson
- Dec 22, 2022
- 11 min read
“I can get you a toe, believe me. There are ways, Dude. You don't wanna know about it, believe me. Hell, I can get you a toe by 3 o'clock this afternoon... with nail polish.” - Walter Sobchak
“You find out life's this game of inches, so is football. Because in either game - life or football - the margin for error is so small. I mean, one half a step too late or too early and you don't quite make it. One half second too slow, too fast and you don't quite catch it.” - Tony D'Amato
A picture is worth a thousand words. And even with everything that went wrong in 2022, the above shows just how close I was to making the playoffs. What are you looking at above? You are looking at Justin Fields stepping “out of bounds” by a toe on a 48 yard touchdown run. His touchdown was called back and ruled to have stepped out of bounds at the 9 yard line. On the very next play David Montgomery scored a 9 yard rushing touchdown. Obviously David Montgomery plays for Overbay. A 14 point swing in a matchup I lost by 11 points. I literally lost by a toe. A toe. Yep, in case you were wondering that was David Montgomery’s best fantasy scoring game all year (20 points).
But wait, it gets better, because I needed help even if I won right? I needed KRABS to beat Brent W. He had to win. He couldn’t lose and he couldn’t….. tie? But to add insult to injury what does KRABS do? He freaking ties. Again. FOR THE THIRD TIME THIS YEAR. He tied in Week 7 and won. He tied in Week 12 and won. He tied in Week 15 and won. And this is after he had the audacity to complain about the tie breaker rules. I mean who is this guy? That is now KRABS TWELTH tie in the league and well we might as well just call him Mr. Tie Die. Hah ha ha, get it? Get it? But seriously, I missed the Playoffs by a toe. A freaking toe.
And to top it all off? The Institute loses after scoring 82 points. Just punch me now.
But hey who wants to talk about losers. Let’s talk about some winners (and VZ). Congrats to Billy, Overbay, Brent W, and I guess VZ for making the 2022 Playoffs! What is interesting is that all 4 teams were not in the Playoffs last year so it’s a complete overhaul of the top 4 teams from last year. There are a number of things going on that are going to make the next two weeks extremely interesting. Let’s breakdown the matchups.
Hey it’s another Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes matchup! We know there are fireworks when these two guys face off. Let’s take a look at the two teams. These two teams split in the regular season with Brent W winning the first matchup in Week 5 121 – 116 and Billy winning the second matchup in Week 14 86-79. These two teams have never faced each other in the Playoffs before.
showmedamoney!: This is Billy’s 6th Playoffs appearance and first since 2020. Billy is 4-4 overall in the Playoffs and 3-2 in the Semifinals.
Billy has essentially been a top 4 team all year and has been in the pole position for over a month as he has cruised to the Playoffs. He is currently on a 6 game win streak and Billy had 12 wins this year which is the 15th time in league history a team has 12+ wins and the first time since 2019 (when yours truly had 14 wins) that a team had 12+ wins in the regular season. Fun fact, Aaron, Brent W, Brent C, Jeff, Kris, and Overbay have never had a 12+ win season in league history. In case you are wondering:
Jimmy: 5
Brandon: 3
Umphlett: 2
VZ: 2
Billy: 2
AJ: 1 (how in the heck did this happen?)
MVP: Basically, the headline here is Josh Allen. Allen continues to be the driving force behind Billy’s success finishing as the #3 QB 5 points behind #1 Patrick Mahomes. Billy has other firepower here, but Allen is the engine that makes this team go.
X Factor: After 4 straight weeks of 16+ points, Christian Watson reentered the land of the mortals in Week 15 with only 4 fantasy points. If he can return to his pre bye dominance Billy’s team is extremely difficult to beat.
Spotlight: As crazy as this sounds, is Billy wishing for Jacoby Brissett take back over as the Cleveland Browns QB1? With Deshaun Watson as the QB Amari Cooper has three consecutive games of 5 or less fantasy points. On Christmas Eve can Deshaun Watson take Amari Cooper to the double digit fantasy point realm which is going to be critical for a victory.
Black Is For Sunday: This is Brent’s 6th Playoffs appearance and his first since 2013 (!?!?!?). Brent is 1-5 in the Playoffs and 1-4 in the Semi Finals. 2022 was the second time that Brent led the league in regular season points scored (2012 was the last time), but that wasn’t even the most noteworthy accomplishment from Brent this year. With 1505 points scored against Brent W in the regular season he has now set a single season record for most regular season points scored against him. The previous record was me in 2013 with 1503 points scored against in the regular season. And if you are keeping track at home that was the year that I had Peyton Manning throw 55 touchdowns and somehow not manage to make the Playoffs. So Black Is For Sunday has clearly faced adversity in 2022 and is a man on a mission.
BUT WAIT, THERE’S MORE. Brent Woodcox now also holds the distinction as the only team in league history to make the Playoffs with a losing record. So Brent is setting records left and right in 2022, but the question we all want to know is there more to this story?
MVP: Patrick Mahomes is the highest scoring player in the league and continues to lead Brent. He has a home game in freezing temperatures on Saturday afternoon and all expectations are that he will have a very good game against a struggling Seahawks team.
X Factor: Ezekiel Elliott knows how to win. The guy is a winner. All he does is win. He has 7 consecutive games of double digit fantasy points (when he plays). You can rest assured Zeke will be ready for this matchup and is a massive X factor when it comes to team locker room culture and fantasy points scored.
Spotlight: Ever since Amon-Ra St. Brown destroyed me in Week 2, it has been a bumpy ride. He got hurt, he has had games where he has basically been invisible, outside of a glimpse of the past in weeks 12 and 13. Can Amon-Ra channel another two week explosion to help Black Is For Sunday reach the ultimate goal? Against a Carolina defense on the road he is going to have to be huge for this squad to move on.
Prediction: Dalvin Cook has a great matchup, Patrick Mahomes is at home, and the Hype Train is setting records in 2022. Everything seems lined up to take a train ride to glory. Except one thing. One very important thing. Brent has lost 4 consecutive games and seems to be content with tempting the cursed one. Even though he has now lost 4 consecutive games (and 9 of 10 with a potential Week 17 matchup with The Institute) he doesn’t seem deterred in anyway. He is brash and confident. He is loose and in the moment. He is ready.
With that said, come on he has Jeff Wilson Jr. on his team and losing Chris Olave isn’t going to help. Billy advances to the championship.
Who Do You Think Will Win?
showmedamoney!
Black Is For Sunday
On the other side of the bracket we have a …. Gardner Minshew vs. Jared Goff battle?!?!?! Is this real life? I mean what the heck is this. I have Pro Bowl level QBs, game breaking RB, amazing WR, multiple dynamic TEs and I am not in the Playoffs while two teams are facing off with Gardner Minshew and Jared Goff as their starting QB? Sigh.
These two teams only faced once in the regular season with The Institute winning a barn burner in Week 7 74-59. These two teams have faced each other twice in the past in the Playoffs.
2006 Fantasy Bowl: Behind 38 points from Marc Bulger and 27 points from Ron Dayne (Overbay has cold shivers) led a victory for VZ over 30 points from Vince Young and 29 from Maurice Jones-Drew on the icon.
2016 Semi Finals: Ten years later these two teams faced off in the semi finals and once again VZ came up with the victory 109-101. 30 points from Brandin Cooks and 23 from Ezekiel Elliott (all this guy does is win) were too much for a LeSean McCoy 28 point explosion.
the icon: This is Overbay’s 12th appearance in the Playoffs and first since 2017. With his 12th appearance in the Playoffs he now finds himself in a tie with yours truly for most appearances in the Fantasy Playoffs. Overbay is 5-10 in the Playoffs and 4-7 in the Semi Finals. Overbay is currently on the best stretch of his season with 5 consecutive victories and three consecutive outings with 100+ points. But as you will see below (and above) Overbay has a massive massive issue.
MVP: No player has been more critical than Jalen Hurts for Overbay. He was Matthew Berry’s 2022 Ride or Die and he has been that and more for the icon squad. Jalen Hurts has only one week below 20 points all year and 7 (!!!) weeks over 30 points. He has now scored 30+ points in 4 consecutive weeks. With his massively improved accuracy, AJ Brown, and continued rushing floor, Jalen Hurts is the closest thing we have come to 2010 Michael Vick in a very long time.
BUT
Jalen is currently hurt and out Saturday night. Leading to a massive massive massive problem for Overbay. Needless to say Gardner Minshew is not Jalen Hurts. Which is quite possibly the worst news that can happen to Overbay. And really the rest of the league if I am being honest.
X Factor: Who is Joe Mixon exactly? Joe Mixon has the most dominating performance all year with his 50 point Week 9 explosion, but has two DNP and 21 points in total in the three other games. Joe Mixon was a first round pick, but if you take away week 9 he has been a huge bust. Can Joe Mixon channel some of his week 9 magic? He is going to have to if Overbay wants to advance.
Spotlight: In addition to Joe Mixon, all eyes are on Tyreek Hill. He has scored a touchdown in 5 of his last 6 games and is the #2 WR in Fantasy. He has a winnable matchup in Week 16 at home against the Packers and Overbay needs another massive game from Hill to offset the loss of Hurts. In Week 2, Hill had 190 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns, these are the types of numbers Overbay is going to be hoping for on Christmas Day.
The Institute: This is VZ’s 9th appearance in the Playoffs and first since 2020. His record is 8-5 in the Playoffs and 5-3 in the Semi Finals. In Week 8 VZ found himself at 3-5. He put together a season changing victory in Week 9 over Dirty Mike which changed the course of the league. Because after that win VZ made a league altering trade acquiring Christian McCaffery and George Kittle and since that point he has gone 4-2, even though he has oddly only scored over 100 points once in that stretch.
MVP: Davante Adams has been the MVP of The Institute all year. He is the #3 WR overall and has 6 games with 18+ Fantasy points this year. But his last two weeks have been duds and oddly the Raiders have just ignored him in the offense which is just bizarre. Adams now faces a Pittsburgh Steelers team which gives up the 4th most points to WR in a brutal weather Saturday night game (the high is forecasted to be 11 degrees). Can Adams come up with a massive fantasy point week? If he does you can probably go ahead and punch the ticket to the Championship for VZ.
X Factor: George Kittle likes the number 2. In Week 10 he scored, 2 fantasy points. In Week 11 he scored 20 Fantasy Points. Week 12? 2. Week 13? 2. Week 14? 2. Week 15? 21. So basically he either scores 20 points or 2 points. Either way its going to have a 2 in it. Which George Kittle is going to show up in Week 16? The 2 point version of the 20 point version? The Redskins have a strong defense and are probably going to be a tough squad to put up the 20 point version so there is your clue.
Spotlight: We have talked at length about Miles Sanders. After a 27 point outing against me in Week 14 he followed it up with a 1 point outing in Week 15. With Jalen Hurts out, how will that impact the Eagles offense and Miles Sanders. Will he become the focus of the offense or will it crater? I mean the guy had 27 points against me and 1 point the next week. I don’t have a freaking clue what is about to happen, but I can say this, all eyes will be on Miles on Saturday night.
Prediction: I mean I want Overbay to win bad. I really really want him to win. But he is projected to start Gardner Minshew. Gardner Minshew. Please let there be Minshew Magic. Please Please Please.
I just don’t see it though. The Institute advances to what could break all time Fantasy Championship ratings if it’s a matchup with Black Is For Sunday. That could break the internet.
Who Do You Think Will Win?
the icon
The Institute
Before we get to the awards let’s check this week’s episode of Gridiron Heights:
Manager of the Weak
Let’s do a quick Taysom Hill update.
Week 6: 3
Week 7: 7
Week 8: 7
Week 9: 0
Week 10: 0
Week 11: 5
Week 12: 1
Week 13: 10
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: 11
Total: 44
Well I guess Umphlett won something in 2022. I was so close yet so far. Taysom Hill scored 21 points over his last two games to win the bet and just provide insult to injury. Taysom Hill finishes the regular season as the #2 overall “Tight End” with 102 Fantasy Points. He outscored Mark Andrews and George Kittle. Even if you subtract the 35 point outlier performance from Taysom Hill in week 5 he still would have been the number 10 overall TE. Basically TE sucked this year. To put things in perspective, Travis Kelce scored 80 points more than Taysom Hill showing just how dominant he was in 2022.
Well congrats Umphlett. You won the big bet on Taysom Hill. Too bad you can’t keep him for 2023! Because you sure as heck didn’t win in Week 15 and starting Daniel Jones, Jordan Mason, Zonovan Knight, and Ben Skowronek has to be defined as a “curious” decision right? I mean I think in the NBA they call that “tanking”.
Move of the Week
Well Umphlett tried to win this, but well, it didn’t work out so much. So yeah he didn’t win. And really no one had a good move so we will go with this: UNC hiring a guy I have never heard of as our new Offensive Coordinator.
MVP Jaylen Waddle, David Montgomery, Joe Burrow, Jerick McKinnon, Josh Allen
When you catch all 8 of your targets for 70 yards and a touchdown and add in 52 rushing yards and a walkoff 26 yard rushing touchdown in OT you are having a good day. And well 26 fantasy points are good too. McKinnon was huge in Week 15 helping KRABS get a win (tie). See Umphlett, when your team stinks and you have no hope maybe you can be more like KRABS in the future. And that is what this season has brought me to. Urging someone else to be more like KRABS. What is happening?!?!?!
Manager of the Week
What started off with such great promise after a Week 1 victory (where I got 50 points from my RB and still managed to find a way to lose) Aaron’s season trying to defend his title sort of never got on track. Sure there were high moments, but in the end Burrow and Chase just didn’t have enough in the tank to get it done. But in Week 15 they had enough to smash a Jordan Mason led Umphlett lineup to get a victory to move into 5th place. What decisions will Aaron regret the most? Will it be drafting Alvin Kamara instead of Nick Chubb? Will it be trading the unstoppable Josh Jacobs for Derrick Henry? Will it be ruthlessly stealing Gabe Davis from me? Maybe it will be all 3, but one thing is for certain, at least they won’t be blowing up their house again anytime soon.
Congrats to This is the Way and Aaron for at least ending the season on the high note with your Week 15 Manager of the Week!
Until Week 16…
RIP Ronnie Hillman
-The Commish
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