Week 15
- James Wilson
- Dec 25, 2021
- 12 min read
MERRY CHRISTMAS! I hope all of your Christmas Dreams came true today (unless they involve beating me in Fantasy Football).
Well Week 15 was quite the interesting week with excitement and suspense all the way up to the 4th quarter of Tuesday Night Football. After 75 matchups, we have arrived on our 4 Playoff teams: Andy's Face Shield, This is the Way, Dirty Mike, and The Commish. These four teams will be vying to etch their names into the annuals of league history and while it has been a grind to get to this point of the season, the real hard work is just starting.
Let's go ahead and break down each of the Matchups.
Both of these teams started out slowly with Andy's Face Shield starting 0-3 and The Commish starting 1-4. Since that time they have been two of the hotter teams in the league. Andy's Face Shield reeled off a 7 game win streak and while he had back to back losses (one of which was to The Commish) he finished the season on a 3 game win streak. Umphlett has been very active on the trade market this year and is looking to bounce back from his poor performance the last two seasons. Since winning the Championship in 2018, Umphlett has finished 8th place and last place and you can feel his passion this year in trying to will himself to another Championship. On the other side you have The Commish, The Gold Standard. He is entering his league leading 12th Playoff Appearance and while he hasn't been taken seriously this year, Jonathan Taylor has other plans. The Commish has willed his way through injuries, COVID, and mind numbingly inconsistent WR and TE play to get to this point. With two MVP candidates on his roster, anything is possible with this Titan of the league.
Previous Matchups in 2021:
Week 4: Andy's Face Shield 150 - The Commish 100
Week 12: The Commish 88 - Andy's Face Shield 76
Let's Breakdown the positions:
QB Justin Herbert (#2 in overall QB Points) vs. Aaron Rodgers (#6 in Overall QB Points)
While Justin Herbert has scored more points this season (so far) Aaron Rodgers is the hottest QB in the league. He has scored 128 in his past 4 games (most in the league and 27 more than Herbert). Herbert has been awesome and was one of the best value's in the league, but Aaron is on a mission to basically prove everyone wrong. At home, looking to become the all time franchise leader in TD passes for Green Bay, against a COVID ravaged Browns team I see big fantasy points coming. On the other side Justin Herbert faces another COVID ravaged team in the Houston Texans. Herbert's biggest fantasy explosions have come in shootouts. Can the Texans score enough points to force Herbert to throw? He may get some points early, but he may not even get any snaps in the 4th quarter of this one. While this is close, how do you bet against the reigning MVP?
EDGE: The Commish
RB: Jonathan Taylor & David Montgomery vs. Alexander Mattison and Najee Harris
Dalvin Cook going on the COVID list added a little spice to this matchup for the week because Umphlett has stashed Alexander Mattison on his bench all year. This will be the 2nd time he has started Mattison, the first of which he scored 18 points against Detroit. He has three big games this year when Dalvin has been out, but can he do it against Aaron Donald and the Rams? Najee Harris (the shocking #1 pick in our draft this year) has been fairly consistent with 79% of his matchups scoring double digit points leading to the #6 overall scoring RB on the year. But in the other 3 matchups he has 4 or less points leading to a relatively extremely low floor. KC is a matchup in the upper half of fantasy points so the opportunity is there, can Najee take advantage? Jonathan Taylor is the #1 RB in Fantasy and is the most exciting player in the NFL right now. I have no words to say about him other than I am blessed to have the opportunity to compete with him. Can he join a long line of past RB greats (Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Ricky Williams, Ezekiel Elliott) to lead The Commish to his league leading 7th Championship? As important as Taylor is David Montgomery is probably more critical to the success of this team. A workhorse back who has come back from an MCL sprain this year, he needs to close out the year strong against two great matchups. He was the #1 RB in Fantasy down the stretch in 2020, can he repeat his greatness for two weeks? RB has been the strength of The Commish all year, how do you bet against Jonathan Taylor?
EDGE: The Commish
WR: Davante Adams, Deebo Samuel, and Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, and Amari Cooper
WR has been a struggle all year for The Commish. I mean last week we scored a total of 5 points from all three WR. 5. Brandon Aiyuk has already doubled my WR score for Week 16 so I got that going for me. I invested in two high upside WR low in the draft with Higgins and Aiyuk and while they have been a maddening inconsistent roller coaster ride, they both seem to be trending up when I need them the most. But this comes down to Amari Cooper. Amari was my #1 WR in the draft this year and I have no choice but to stick with and hope and pray. And heck at least he realizes the issue.
On the other side you have a pretty stacked roster of WR with Deebo Samuel (wait is he a RB?) and Davante Adams. Both have been top 5 talents all year and you saw it on display with Deebo racing out to a 18 point outing giving Andy's Face Shield the early lead. The dark horse is the guy with one of the funniest names in the league Amon-Ra St. Brown. I don't know if he is a Christmas Elf or a former Egyptian King. But either way the guy has been on fire the last three weeks with double digit Fantasy Points in 2 of the last three weeks. I want to hope and hope and hope that THSI is finally the week that my WR bust out, but I am not sure how any unbiased person can think I have the edge here.
EDGE: Andy's Face Shield
TE: Cole Kmet vs. Mike Gesicki or Hunter Henry or Tyler Higbee
Talk about an exciting matchup. Umphlett invested heavily in TE this year but with Waller hurt he has had to rely on backup players. He caught lighting in a bottle with Pat Freiermuth but he has been declared out for this week with a concussion. So he has turned to Cole Kmet. Kmet hasn't scored double digit fantasy points all year, but his targets are trending up. Can he have his big game in Seattle in Week 15? Honestly I have no idea who to start at TE. Logan Thomas was the player I hand picked to lead this division and while he scored TDs in every game he played, he just didn't play in enough. Outside of that I have primarily relied on Mike Gesicki and while the promise is always high throughout the week, the guy never delivers. It's frustrating. Hunter Henry had a huge game last week (on my bench) but he has a huge variation in targets throughout the season. I may just end up throwing a dart here. Because I have no idea who I am going to start I am just going to give Umphlett the edge.
EDGE: Andy's Face Shield
K: Greg Zuerlein vs. Dustin Hopkins
EDGE: We are talking about Kickers, who cares?
Defense: Miami Dolphins or Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is an interesting matchup and may play a critical role in deciding the outcome. Tampa Bay has two huge outings but both came at home against rather pedestrian offenses. They have struggled with injuries all year and while they were the number one ranked defense in the preseason, they haven't really lived up to expectations. They play a rather pedestrian offense on Sunday in Charlotte. Can they control the game and put up big Fantasy Points? On the other side I have an interesting choice between a rather average (maybe even poor) defense in the Seahawks, at Home, against a completely dysfunctional offense and a Miami Dolphins defense on the road on Monday night against a very functional (but not explosive) offense starting a rookie QB in his first game. I am not sure which way I am going to go yet, but since I dont know I am going to get Umphlett the edge (plus Tampa Bay has been ranked higher all year).
Edge: Andy's Face Shield
Prediction: Deebo started the matchup off strong, but let's not overlook that Brandon Aiyuk was the only one to score a TD and if my WR can come to play this week I am going to be tough to beat.
We are on a mission so I am going to predict an upset:
The Commish 114 - Andy's Face Shield 99
Another interesting matchup between two teams that have been in the playoff hunt all year. Aaron started out on fire winning his first 5 matchups behind the brillance of Cooper Kupp and Jamarr Chase. But since then Chase has dramatically slowed down as defenses have adjusted and Aaron is 4-6 over his last 10 games. Dirty Mike was riding high in Week 11 after a nail biting win over Overbay, but then went on to lose 3 straight games almost choking away a playoff spot. There are some pretty critical players dealing with COVID in this matchup so it is going to be very interesting to see how this one plays out.
Previous Matchups in 2021:
Week 9: Dirty Mike 81 - This is the Way 79
Let's Breakdown the positions:
QB: Matthew Stafford vs. Dak Prescott
This is a battle of two well established QBs who have been inconsistent with one really struggling right now. Dak hasn't scored over 11 fantasy points in three weeks and while Stafford has had 3 of his last 4 matchups with at least 26 points, he has had a few low double digit point outings as well. Both Prescott and Stafford face beatable matchup with the Rams going against the Vikings and their burnable secondary and the Cowboys facing the Redskins on SNF. This is really a coin flip, but I am going to go with Dak Prescott primarily because I want Amari Cooper to have a huge game and there is alot of press this week about the play of Dak Prescott on offense.
Edge: This is the Way
RB: Cordarelle Patterson & Aaron Jones vs. Ezekiel Elliott and Sony Michel
A rather odd matchup here with two perennial top 10 RBs and two "what the heck RBs (or actually one is a WR). Since the bye, Zeke has single digit fantasy point outings in 5 of his 8 games. While Zeke is a stalwart of Playoff time, you have to really wonder if Aaron's lineup is too overly invested in Cowboys with Zeke and Prescott. Sony Michel has been a strong performer the past three weeks and seems to have Wally Pipped Darell Henderson. He faces a very weak Minnesota defense, can he take advantage? On the other side you have Aaron Jones who has had his moments this year, but they have been far two few. He is currently on a little bit of a hot streak with two straight matchups in double digit points and I think he could get multiple receiving touchdowns later today. And then you have the biggest enigma in the league Cordarelle Patterson. This column has talked at length about the WR who is able to play RB and I continue to think he is a ticking time bomb, primarily because of the KRABS association. He was one of the most reliable players in fantasy through the first 9 weeks, but it has been a little bit more of a roller coaster since them. He is facing the Lions on Sunday, can he take advantage and have another huge game? This is another coin toss for me, and I am going to give the slight edge to Aaron Jones with a huge game on Christmas later today.
Edge: Dirty Mike
WR: Tyreek Hill (SCRATCH THAT INSERT ANOTHER PLAYER HERE), Stefon Diggs, and Mike Williams vs. Cooper Kupp, Jamarr Chase, and Russell Gage
While it is possible Hill plays tomorrow, it is looking very unlikely at this time. Which is a huge blow to Dirty Mike. Hill was their first round draft pick and has been a stalwart in their lineup all year. But Dirty Mike has had the deepest bench in the league when it comes to WR and he has solid options in Terry McLaurin or Michael Pittman to plug into his starting lineup. Stefon Diggs was a revelation last year leading KRABS to a championship, but he hasn't been as dominant this year. He hasn't broken double digit points in the last three weeks, can he bust out of his slump against a strong New England defense looking to take away the Bills best playmaker? Mike Williams was looking like one of the best keepers in the league after opening the season with three consecutive double digit scoring outings, but he has dramatically slowed down since then. Like Herbert, Williams comes to play when the Chargers are in shootouts, can the Texans force the Chargers to score on Sunday? Other than Jonathan Taylor there is no more dominant player in fantasy than Cooper Kupp.
I am not sure what else I can say about him. JaMarr Chase was on a streak of 5 consecutive single digit scoring outings before busting out with 19 points last week. The last time he played the Ravens he had 26 points. Will the Ravens let him run wild again or will they have a new strategy to slow him down? Russell Gage has come out of no where to score double digit points in 3 of the last 4 weeks and is playing a weak Detroit defense at home tomorrow. Can he continue his target dominance or will the Lions slow him down? Another really close matchup here, but I dont know how you bet against the guy with Cooper Kupp.
Edge: This is the Way
TE: Travis Kelce (SCRATCH THAT INSERT ANOTHER PLAYER HERE) vs. Kyle Pitts
There is no other way around it. This is an absolutely killer for Aaron. Travis Kelce was a critical member of this franchise in 2021 and not having him is a massive downgrade. It is hard to understate how important Kelce is to this team. Coming off a massive 31 point outing last Thursday night, Kelce was poised to be a massive difference maker in this matchup. If he doesn't play (which seems unlikely at this point) it is a huge impact for the team. Kyle Pitts has a bunch of promise, but outside of a little run earlier in the year, has pretty much been a non factor this year. He hasn't scored double digit fantasy points since Week 7, but with the Lions on the docket can he turn it around? Brent has to hope that Kyle Pitts makes a different on Sunday because TE is a matchup he can make up alot of points on.
Edge: Dirty Mike
K: Matt Gay vs. Justin Tucker
EDGE: We are talking about Kickers, who cares?
DEF: Kansas City vs. Dallas
Kansas City has quietly put up 15+ points in their last three home games. Dallas has put up 16+ points in their last three games (all on the road). You surprisingly have two defenses who are really creating alot of havoc in the backfield leading to a ton of fantasy points being scored. I am going to go with Micah Parsons and the Dallas Defense here.
EDGE: This is the Way
Prediction: This is a tough one. I do think with Hill and Kelce being on the COVID list is going to lead to not hitting their projections. Aaron is currently projected to win and has Cooper Kupp, but there is something about Dirty Mike this year. He is hungry to prove he is relevant to himself and he wants nothing more to rub it in KRABS face and win his first championship. To do that he has to win this critical Week 15 matchup.
Dirty Mike 93 - This is the Way 84
Before we get to the awards, let's check out this week's edition of Gridiron Heights!
Move of the Week
Hollywood Brown has been a staple of Umphlett's lineups all year, but in Week 15 he was benched for Christian Kirk. That was a pretty bold move Cotton, but it turned out fantastically because Kirk scored 15 points and Hollywood only had 4. Umphlett has always had an unorthodox method to his madness and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't, but it definitely worked in Week 15 with Kirk! Congrats to Umphlett for winning the Week 15 Move of the Week!
Manager of the Weak
Tyree Jackson? Who?
C'MON MAN!
MVP
Jonathan Taylor, Justin Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, Cooper Kupp
It was a must win matchup for Dirty Mike and Matthew Stafford did enough on Tuesday Night Football to take home the victory. It wasn't pretty, but it didn't need to be. He scored enough for Dirty Mike to advance to his first ever playoff appearance! Congrats to Matthew Stafford and Dirty Mike for winning the Week 15 MVP!
Manager of the Week
He didn't win in Week 15, but hey we have come to expect that from this loveable loser. It isn't about his performance, it's about his charm, and KRABS put on a Manager of the Week level performance in Week 15 with his attitude. Even though we aren't ALL KRABS, he took this revelation in stride throughout the season and kept a humble spirt. With the talented Justin Jefferson on his roster now I am sure we are all on pins and needles to see how he screws it up in 2022! Congrats to KRABS for winning the Week 15 Manager of the Week!
Well that is all I got. It's officially time to make history.
The Autumn Wind is a Pirate...
Until Week 17 (that is weird to type)...
- The Commish
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