Week 12

Good Morning Party People. Another wild week at work. If you weren’t aware, we announced our biggest holiday shopping weekend ever so you and the other 350M people in the country have kept me busy. But hey while our Press Deadline has been a little wonky this year, we are still pumping out column after column for you our beloved reader. We are here for you friends. Now while I am sure Brent W is currently channeling his inner Zach Wilson/Anakin Skywalker right now due to losing to VZ again in rivalry week, I am overjoyed to be bringing The Notes to you once again!

So we have a pretty wild Playoff chase so I figured I would do a quick rundown of each team still in the running. I am going to ahead and eliminate Brent C, Jeff & Jacob, and KRABS because while technically they are only 2 games out, with 3 games to play and their point totals it is unlikely to happen.

1) showmedamoney!: Billy is currently 9-3 (don't get his record wrong people) and has a 3 game buffer. He is currently 4th in total points scored and while he hasn’t officially clinched a spot, he is essentially a lock to make the Playoffs at this point. And heck to top if off he won the Jose's Taco Truck Blowout of the Week in Week 12! The most interesting fact for Billy IMO is he is starting Christian Watson for the first time in Week 13. And this is a guy who well is scoring a ton of Touchdowns now (he has 6 over his last 3 games). Is that sustainable? Probably not. Is he going to score more than Courtland Sutton? Probably.

2) the icon: Overbay is currently 8-4 and has a 2 game buffer. He is in a good spot, but probably needs one more victory to feel safe. I think the biggest question mark here is Joe Mixon. After a 50 (my goodness) point outing in Week 9 he has had a bye and a concussion. Can he have anywhere close to the impact he had in Week 9 or is he the player he was the first 8 weeks of the season?!?

3) black is for Sunday: Brent W is 7-4 with a 1 game buffer, but he has also scored the most points in the league. Brent also has an “easy” final three games with 2 of his 3 matchups against teams in the bottom third of the standings. Looking back his Week 11 victory over me was extremely critical and may turn out to be the victory of the regular season. He was two points in Week 12 from having three consecutive weeks of at least 100 points and with Amon-Ra St Brown rounding back into form (double digit points in 2 of the last 3 weeks) you have to think that statistically he has a good shot. But I mean lets be honest here Jeff Wilson Jr. continues to be on this roster. I am not sure that is a sustainable victory model I would be counting on. Jeff Wilson Jr. works in mysterious ways and I just don’t question his ways.

This is where it gets super interesting because we have 4 teams essentially tied for the 4th Playoff spot with a 6-6 record with Umphlett currently holding it due to the most points scored.

4) Jerry’s Belt Buckle: 1186 points. After another Rivalry Week defeat to yours truly Umphlett is searching for answers. What was once a first place roster has now lost 3 consecutive matchups and hasn’t scored above 86 points in any of the losses. Deebo Samuel has been a shell of his 2021 self and while Stefon Diggs continues to be a lineup lock, he isn’t scoring 20+ points like he was earlier this year. But probably the biggest factor has been Lamar Jackson. Lamar hasn’t scored above 23 points since Week 3 and has 6 games below 20 points over the same time frame. Can Lamar Jackson get back to being a top 3 QB to help cover for other areas of Umphlett’s roster, or is the free fall going to continue? He has a tough closing schedule against three contenders (The Institute, the icon, This Is The Way) so this will be fascinating to watch how he closes.

5) This Is The Way: 1141 points. This is another team that is moving in the wrong direction. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 teams and after Josh Jacobs had 300 total yards in Week 12 you have to wonder if we all need to revisit the trade he made in Week 9. Aaron closes against the icon, Dirty Mike, and Jerry’s Belt Buckle so he has a chance to control his destiny with his point total in Week 15, but it won’t matter if he doesn’t start winning now. Alvin Kamara is critical here. After a 2 fumble 0 point outing, can he become a serviceable #2 back or will the Saints continue to torpedo his chances. Every breakout by Jacobs is going to make him question going all in on Derrick Henry.

6) The Institute: 1100 points. Somehow this team is still around by winning 3 of his last 4 matchups. The odd thing here is that his trade for McCaffery and Kittle has done really nothing for him, but he is winning. The one game Kittle broke out in Week 11 VZ actually lost. The return of Dak Prescott lifting CeeDee Lamb and the return of DeAndre Hopkins have been huge. They have been the #6 and #7 WR in fantasy points over the past 4 weeks, but Davante Adams has been the engine that makes this team go. Adams 3rd in overall WR Fantasy Points, but actually #1 over the past 4 weeks. Can they continue to keep it up and can McCaffery and Kittle make a difference or will this season end like the more recent Institute disappointments? We are going to find out over the next two weeks with matchups against Umphlett and an absolutely massive Week 14 matchup against The Commish.

7) The Commish: 1098. This season has not been for the faint of heart. There have been some serious miscalculations on draft day and some regrettable roster decisions. It has been difficult to overcome keeping Jonathan Taylor in the first round, drafting Allen Robinson in the 3rd round, drafting Russell Wilson in the 5th (ouch), Chase Edmonds in the 6th, and Hunter Renfrow in the 7th. I have gotten a lot of value out of Higgins and Etienne, but lets face it draft day didn’t help. The headline here is that I need to score points and look for some help, but I face two teams above me over the last two weeks and the Week 14 matchup against VZ is massive. Is Justin Fields healthy? If so and he keeps running like he did in weeks 8-10 then I think I have a real shot here. If he is injured or changes the way he is playing then I am not sure I can make up enough ground in points.

Well one thing is for sure, its going to be a wild final 3 weeks to close the regular season!

Let’s do a quick Taysom Hill update.

• Week 6: 3

• Week 7: 7

• Week 8: 7

• Week 9: 0

• Week 10: 0

• Week 11: 5

• Week 12: 1

• Total: 23

Taysom Hill needs 13 points to win the bet and has 3 games left.

Before we get to the awards let’s check this week’s episode of Gridiron Heights:

Manager of the Weak

I mean have the Kayak Pirates had one of the strangest Fantasy Football seasons in recent memory? I think so. They started off the year with 5 consecutive losses and in their first 7 games they only scored over 90 points 1 time. Then in Week 8 they exploded for 157 (against me of course) which started a 3 game win streak. They traded their first round draft pick Derrick Henry in Week 9 and picked up three running backs in Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard. Their three game losing streak breaks in Week 11 at the hands of Billy where they had 80 points on their bench including 30 from Tony Pollard and 24 from Jamal Williams. In Week 12 they lost again which effectively ended their season, but get this. They had a whopping 99 points on their bench. I predicted starting Tony Pollard may end up being something they regret in Week 12 and that is exactly what happened. If they had started any other RB on their roster not named James Cook (but as an aside did anyone notice James Cook had 20 touches in the game on Thursday night, where did that come from?) they would have won and literally been 1 game out of a playoff spot. That is just nuts. But alas, here we are. Keep your heads up Jeff & Jacob, you at least did win something in Week 12, The Manager of the Weak!

Move of the Week

Honorable mention to Overbay for having the guts to start Samaje Perine, but I am going to give the Week 12 Move of the Week for Billy for snagging and starting Foster Moreau. Foster has a couple of things going for him. He has 19 targets over the last 4 games which is 7th overall for TEs, he has scored a touchdown in 2 of his last 3 games, and he has a cool name. In Week 12, he had 9 fantasy points with 33 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown and that is way better than Taysom Hill who only had 1 point. And it was better than Cole Kmet who only had 2 points. So the “point” here is that Billy did a good job picking up Foster and starting him. With Darren Waller out of action, he could have a top 10 TE here for the remainder of the season. Congrats to Billy for winning the Week 12 Move of the Week!

MVP Justin Herbert, Chris Godwin, Miles Sanders, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen

Big players step up in big games and I am not sure there has been a bigger performance than Jalen Hurts in Week 12. Down by 31 points going into SNF, Jalen Hurts decided to do his best Justin Fields impression and started to run wild. Jalen scored 32 points and got the decisive final point on a 10 yard rush deep in the 4th quarter. In fact he became the first QB in the NFL ever to have 125+ rushing and passing yards in one half and the first QB since 1950 to finish a game with 150+ rushing yards and 150+ passing yards. Not only did this performance win him the NFC offensive player of the week, but the 1 point victory over the Kayak Pirates was absolutely massive for his odds to make the playoffs. With a 2 game cushion now there are only 3 games to play so while he has clinched it yet, a loss to Jeff puts his prospects in serious doubt. Why? Because even though Overbay is current in 2nd place he is actually only 8 place in points scored so he is not in a great tie breaker spot. But it may not matter with Jalen Hurts continuing to be a dominating force in fantasy football. Congrats to Jalen for winning the Week 12 MVP!

Manager of the Week

I mean I don’t know what to say. KRABS tied again. I mean I am out of words. I mean go check out the Week 7 notes if you want to learn more about the history of ties and KRABS, but that is now the 11th time that KRABS has tied. And it’s the 3rd time he has been in a tiebreaker since we changed the rules in 2017 (and has won the last 2). I just don’t know if there is anything more KRABS than that.

It’s been a long season for KRABS (see live footage of Kris below):

But I figured this was going to be as good of a chance as I was going to get to let him at least win one Manager of the Week this year. So guess what KRABS week 12 was the week. So uh yeah, Congrats!.

Until Week 13…

-The Commish